The World Bank said if middle-income countries don’t change their economic models, then it will take China more than 10 years just to reach one-quarter of US income per capita, Indonesia 70 years, and India 75 years, the report said.
The World Bank has expressed concerns regarding the potential challenges faced by 108 countries, notably including India and China, in their journey toward becoming high-income developed economies. The risk of getting ensnared in the middle-income trap poses a significant threat to these nations' economic advancement, World Bank's latest World Development Report 2024 stated.
The World Bank report, which was unveiled on Thursday, noted that as countries grow wealthier, they usually hit a “trap” at about 10% of annual US GDP per person—the equivalent of $8,000 today. That’s in the middle of the range of what the World Bank classifies as “middle-income” countries. Since 1990, only 34 middle-income economies have managed to shift to high-income status—and more than a third of them were either beneficiaries of integration into the European Union, or of previously undiscovered oil.
The World Bank said if middle-income countries don’t change their economic models, then it will take China more than 10 years just to reach one-quarter of US income per capita, Indonesia 70 years, and India 75 years, the report said. It noted India’s aim to become a developed nation by 2047 as a laudable goal.
The report suggested that India should adopt a "3i strategy" for nations to achieve high-income status. According to their level of development, countries are advised to implement a carefully planned sequence of policies that become progressively more advanced.
The World Bank said that low-income countries are urged to concentrate on policies aimed at boosting investment in the initial "1i" phase. Once they reach lower-middle-income status, they are encouraged to transition to the "2i" phase, which involves both investment and infusion.
This phase entails adopting technologies from overseas and integrating them into the domestic economy. Upon reaching upper-middle-income status, countries are instructed to progress to the final "3i" phase, which includes investment, infusion, and innovation. In the innovation phase, countries are no longer simply imitating global technological advancements; instead, they are actively pushing the boundaries of technological progress.
“The battle for global economic prosperity will largely be won or lost in middle-income countries,” said Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank Group and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.
He added: “A fresh approach is needed: first focus on investment; then add an emphasis on infusion of new technologies from abroad; and, finally, adopt a three-pronged strategy that balances investment, infusion, and innovation. With growing demographic, ecological and geopolitical pressures, there is no room for error.”
The World Bank study talked about South Korea and how it implemented the 3i strategy. The country had a per capita income of $1,200 in 1960, which increased to $33,000 by 2023.
“Success will depend on how well societies balance the forces of creation, preservation, and destruction. Countries that try to spare their citizenry the pains associated with reforms and openness will miss out on the gains that come from sustained growth,” said Somik V. Lall, Director of the 2024 World Development Report.
At the end of 2023, 108 countries were classified as middle-income, each with annual GDP per capita in the range of $1,136 to $13,845. These countries are home to six billion people—75% of the global population—and two out of every three people living in extreme poverty.
They generate more than 40% of global GDP and more than 60% of carbon emissions. And they face far bigger challenges than their predecessors in escaping the middle-income trap: rapidly aging populations, rising protectionism in advanced economies, and the need to speed up the energy transition.
